Everyday Killings in Mexico Drop Over a Third During President Sheinbaum, According to Government Data

The average count of daily homicides monthly in Mexico has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per new administrative statistics. Nevertheless, public safety experts have advised that murder numbers may not indicate better national safety.

Marked Drop in Daily Averages

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in the month of November compared with almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in September. This data was provided by the chief of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that have been recorded during these past months is extremely significant,” the President remarked, adding that in November the lowest figure of homicides were registered for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Violent drug cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the administration's highly militarised campaigns to take on the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent years. The figure peaked at a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data agency.

That gave Mexico a murder figure more than 4x higher than the US. Since then, murders have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety strategy for an apparently steeper drop in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President stated: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The approach functions. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The key components of the President's safety strategy encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced cooperation between various authorities.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, security experts urged caution that using homicide data to paint a picture of improved security was misleading. This is especially true considering the rise in other crimes such as abductions.

“It would be very good news if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder data and conclude: ‘Oh well, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

Per the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe the previous year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some states have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is not reliable for assessing the context of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the will to properly identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of daily killings was additionally concerning because it could mask periods when there were notably elevated numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day mean renders high peaks of violence unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

An area where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to official figures. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration

However in spite of these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with high violence, with a number of states in the throes of cartel-related bloodshed. Last month there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the past 12 months.

A short time later, many thousands of young people protested in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their outrage at graft and narco-violence.

“The government presents [data] in a way to create a story of safety. Politically it’s extremely effective, socially it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas concluded.