How Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing summit is another twist in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine β a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his first term, including his choice to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister β a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - only to then back off in the wake of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a deal β and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The next day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine later made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine β for Ukraine β the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately urging the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas β even territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines β a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, saying that concluding the war is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power β and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, give up the fight.