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For a brief period, Donald Trump seemed to embrace a resolute approach concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering warnings of "serious ramifications" in August should Putin persisted blocking truce discussions, Trump eventually imposed substantial penalties on Russia's primary petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action substantially impacted Putin's capacity to finance his aggression in Ukraine.

Yet, with his recently unveiled comprehensive peace plan for the conflict, that was created by US and Russian diplomats lacking Ukraine's or EU input, he has clearly gone back to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Aggression

This plan would in practice reward the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's democratic system in danger. Despite strong proclamations that "The nation's sovereignty will be confirmed", significant aspects of the proposal in reality weaken that same autonomy. What represents a Russian ideal would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his real-estate past, Trump persists to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a basic territorial dispute, as if giving Russia a part of Ukraine's soil will appease the president. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not simply about occupying a charred area of deindustrialized territory in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's obvious goal to weaken it so it stops serves as an appealing model for the Russian people of the responsible leadership that his deepening autocracy prevents them.

Land Surrenders

While keeping in place the presently separated oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the plan would require the nation to give up the whole Donetsk province. Aside from benefiting Russia with land that its troops have been failed to seize in over a ten years of fighting, this surrender would leave Ukraine's military defenses critically undermined.

This region is the place of Ukraine's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the entrenched military defenses that represent a essential obstacle to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these positions, giving Putin a clear route to the capital in case he subsequently opt to renew the conflict.

Defense Limitations

Furthermore, in a move that would make additional hostilities easier for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to reduce the numbers of its military from their present large number troops to a cap of 600,000. Notably, the proposal places no such constraints on the invading army.

In what appears as a gesture to Putin's efforts to depict the nation's legitimate leadership as extremists, Trump's proposal declares: "All extremist doctrine and activities must be condemned and prohibited." Seemingly to underscore this aspect, it demands that "The nation will hold democratic votes in three months" of a truce. However, the proposal places no requirement that Putin endanger his dictatorship by holding democratic processes in Russia.

Protection Commitments

Certainly, the initiative has Russia commit not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in legislation its position of non-aggression towards the EU and Ukraine". But given that Putin has breached equivalent treaties in the history – such as the Budapest accord, in which Russia promised to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for giving up its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a return of occupied territory in the region to Ukrainian control – for what reason should we believe Russia now?

That is why Ukraine has been so determined on western security guarantees. Although the proposal promises a "immediate unified armed reaction" if Russia renew its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive dependable security guarantees", the specifics vary from vague to troubling. The initiative would not only block Ukraine accession to NATO but also preclude Nato members from positioning military personnel on the nation's land, thus precluding the security presence, presumptively led by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Russia from rebuilding his weakened troops, restocking, and attacking again.

International Reaction

An additional supplementary accord apparently would offer the nation with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any subsequent "major, deliberate, and continuous aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an act of war jeopardizing the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This implies a defense action. But unlike a powerful Ukrainian military – the nation's primary deterrent against additional hostilities – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would depend on the commitment of Nato leaders, such as Trump, to act militarily to Russia's attacks, a response they have {not